Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2025
Automated root-cause analysis
Agent monitors configured metrics. Alert triggered when deviation exceeds threshold.
The drop is driven by fewer new subscriptions, not pricing changes.
Formula
Revenue = Subscriptions × ARPU
Ruled out: Seasonality — same period last year was +2%. ARPU flat, pricing unchanged.
Three regions affected — each for different reasons. Investigating each branch.
Subscriptions dropped -41% in Turkey. Investigating cause.
Payments stopped completely on a single day — classic holiday pattern. Payment gateways confirm scheduled maintenance.
Payment Conversion Rate (%)
Republic Day (Cumhuriyet Bayramı) — October 29
National holiday in Turkey. Banks, government offices, and payment processors observe full closure. Online payment gateways report scheduled maintenance.
Turkish banking system scheduled maintenance Oct 29-30
Turkey's Central Bank confirms annual system maintenance coinciding with Republic Day celebrations. Card payment processing temporarily suspended.
Subscriptions dropped -28% in Brazil. Investigating cause.
Page loads 4x slower — users abandon before payment flow completes. ISP outage confirmed by multiple sources.
Average Page Load Time
Event anomaly detected
avg_page_load_ms spiked 340% (780ms to 3,400ms) on Nov 1-2 for Sao Paulo region
Vivo ISP reports major outage in São Paulo metropolitan area
Brazil's largest ISP Vivo confirms widespread connectivity issues affecting São Paulo and surrounding regions. Estimated 12M users impacted. Resolution expected within 48 hours.
Internet disruption in Brazil: Vivo, NET services down
Reports of internet outage spike 4,200% in São Paulo. Users report complete loss of connectivity or severely degraded speeds. Vivo and NET both affected.
Turkey (holiday) + Brazil (ISP outage) — both resolve naturally.
US drop is smaller (-8%) but potentially structural. Investigating conversion funnel.
Trial-to-paid conversion is the bottleneck. Two independent signals found — ad campaign performance and a monetization change both coincide with the drop.
Dashed outline = previous week
Meta ad creative has been running for 45 days without refresh. Performance degraded significantly.
Creative fatigue pattern: CTR declines gradually as audience saturates. Frequency capping kicked in, halving impressions at the same budget. Classic lifecycle issue.
CTR
1.4%
was 2.1% (-35%)
Impressions
1.24M
was 2.48M (-50%)
Creative Age
45 days
no refresh
A/B test 'pricing_v2' was rolled from 12% to 100% traffic on Oct 28 without statistical significance.
The test showed conversion rate 4.2% (control) vs 2.8% (test) with p=0.12 — far from the 0.05 threshold. Rolling to 100% exposed all users to the worse variant.
Oct 15
Test started at 12% traffic
Traffic: 12%
Oct 28
Rolled to 100%
Traffic: 100%
Nov 1
Revenue drop detected
Traffic: 100%
Control
4.2%
n = 14,200
pricing_v2
2.8%
n = 12,800 · p = 0.12
Campaign fatigue + premature pricing rollout fully explain the US conversion drop.
Revenue dropped 23%week-over-week ($142K → $109K). Three independent root causes identified.
Turkey — Republic Day (Oct 29)
Payment systems offline during national holiday. Impact: $14K. Holiday passed, payments restored.
Brazil — ISP Outage (Nov 1-2)
Vivo outage in Sao Paulo, page loads 4x slower. Impact: $11K. ISP confirmed resolution.
US — Conversion Drop
Ad creative fatigue — 45 days without refresh. ~$8K/week.
Premature A/B rollout — pricing_v2 at 100% without stat sig. ~$5K/week.
Full recovery to $142K+ within 7 days if actions taken today.